Chaos Rising ME04: Every Chase Card Ranked and How to Pull the One You Want
By Dexhaul Team · September 4, 2026
The Mega Greninja ex Mega Hyper Rare cannot be guaranteed by any Chaos Rising product.
That is the fact most buyers miss when comparing ME04 formats. The Premium Collection guarantees the base Mega Greninja ex: the Double Rare character card with the set's featured artwork. The Hyper Rare variant (card 122/86) comes only from booster packs, and at approximately 1 in 956 packs based on community-tracked data from over 268 pack openings, a full display box of 36 packs gives you roughly a 3.7% chance at one.
Below is a complete ranking of every chase-worthy card in Chaos Rising ME04, with honest pull-rate context and a product-by-product targeting guide covering what each format can actually get you.
Chaos Rising ME04: The Set at a Glance
Chaos Rising launched on May 22, 2026 as the fourth expansion in the Mega Evolution series.
According to the official Pokémon TCG product page, the set contains 122 total cards: 86 in the numbered base and 36 secret rares beyond the numbered range.
Five Mega Pokémon ex carry the collector weight of the set. Mega Greninja ex is the flagship, and the only one to receive a Mega Hyper Rare treatment. Mega Pyroar ex, Mega Floette ex, Mega Dragalge ex, and Mega Gallade ex fill out the rest of the Mega ex roster, each appearing in a Double Rare and a Special Illustration Rare.
Four non-Mega Pokémon ex also appear in the set: Beedrill ex, Gourgeist ex, Krookodile ex, and Cinccino ex. These pull at Double Rare rates, roughly 1 in 5 packs, and are realistic targets for buyers opening a moderate amount of product.
S-Tier: Mega Greninja ex Mega Hyper Rare (122/86)
The hardest card in the set to pull.
Community pull data across 268 or more pack openings places the Mega Hyper Rare pull rate at approximately 1 in 956 packs. A single ETB (9 packs) gives you roughly a 0.9% chance. A full display box (36 packs) raises that to around 3.7%.
These figures are community-derived estimates, not officially published odds. They reflect the realistic scale of the challenge for pack-opening strategies.
No sealed product creates a guaranteed path to this specific variant. The Premium Collection guarantees the base Mega Greninja ex Double Rare, which is a different card entirely: different card number, different artwork treatment, different collector tier. Buyers who want the Hyper Rare should be clear-eyed about the cost of chasing it through sealed product versus purchasing directly as a single once it appears on the secondary market.
A-Tier: Mega Greninja ex Special Illustration Rare
The premium Greninja card for collectors who are not gambling on Hyper Rare odds.
The overall Special Illustration Rare pull rate in Chaos Rising is approximately 1 in 83 packs (1.21%) across all SIRs in the set. For any specific SIR, pull rates fall in the range of 1 in 496 to 620 packs based on available community tracking.
The Greninja ex SIR carries a full-bleed illustrated treatment, as opposed to the character-forward art on the Double Rare. For display collectors, this version is the more striking option.
At A-tier rather than S, the SIR is still a committed pull target. It is not a casual opening reward. But it avoids the near-impossible odds of the Hyper Rare, which puts it in a category collectors can approach with a deliberate pack-opening budget.
A-Tier: Mega Dragalge ex SIR (118/086), the Dark-Horse Pick
Most buyers focus on Greninja and overlook this one entirely.
Mega Dragalge ex SIR (card 118/086) currently trades at $43 to $57 on the secondary market. That premium significantly outpaces every other ME04 SIR outside the Greninja variants, and the gap between the Dragalge SIR and its Double Rare counterpart (card 104/086, typically $3 to $6) is the widest single-card split in the set. The explanation is not demand-driven inflation: Dragalge has a smaller general fanbase than Greninja, which makes this price point genuinely unusual for a non-flagship character.
The SIR artwork for Dragalge is one of the stronger full-bleed illustrations in ME04. Collectors building a complete SIR master set should budget this card above the Pyroar, Floette, and Gallade SIRs when planning their acquisition costs.
B-Tier: Mega Pyroar ex, Mega Floette ex, and Mega Gallade ex
Each appears in a Double Rare and a Special Illustration Rare.
Limitless TCG documents Mega Gallade ex at card number 48 within the numbered portion of the set. Pyroar ex is card 15 and Floette ex is card 35. None of the three currently carry secondary market premiums comparable to Greninja or Dragalge, which makes their SIR versions the most accessible illustration rare targets in ME04 for collectors who want to fill those slots without extended product investment.
For collectors building toward a complete SIR set, B-tier is not a skip. These are the cards that round out a display or binder set, and their comparatively lower prices reflect lower general demand rather than inferior artwork quality.
C-Tier: Beedrill ex, Gourgeist ex, Krookodile ex, and Cinccino ex
These four non-Mega Pokémon ex pull at Double Rare rates: approximately 1 in 5 packs (20.3% per pack).
For buyers opening a moderate amount of Chaos Rising product, these are realistic outcomes from normal pack openings. None carry notable secondary market premiums, which positions them as practical card targets for players building a deck rather than collectors hunting display pieces. If you are constructing a Chaos Rising-era competitive deck and need ex cards as functional components, these are what you can expect to pull without significant pack volume.
Product-by-Product Targeting Guide
Knowing which cards you want changes which product makes sense to buy.
The Elite Trainer Box: Broadest Exposure
The ETB at $69.95 (MHDEALSPLUS) delivers nine booster packs plus accessories including sleeves, energy cards, a player's guide, a coin, and a hardback storage box. Nine packs gives you roughly an 11% cumulative chance of pulling any SIR from the set at the 1.21% per-pack rate. For buyers who want broad exposure to the ME04 rare and ultra rare card pool rather than one specific target, the ETB is the highest-pack-count format below a full display box.
It also suits buyers new to the Chaos Rising set who want a complete kit in a single purchase.
The Premium Collection: One Guaranteed Card
The Premium Collection ($51 to $79.95 depending on seller) is the format for collectors who specifically want the base Mega Greninja ex character card. The guaranteed card removes pack luck entirely for that one target.
What the Premium Collection does not do is improve your odds at the Hyper Rare or SIR. Those come only from booster packs. The Premium Collection's packs are supplementary pulls, not a path to the premium variants.
Buyers who understand this distinction get full value from the format. Buyers who expect the Premium Collection to be a Hyper Rare shortcut will be disappointed.
The Booster Bundle: Pure Pack Volume
The Booster Bundle at $34.95 (MHDEALSPLUS) delivers packs at the lowest per-pack cost in the ME04 product range. No accessories, no guaranteed character card.
For buyers who already own TCG accessories from a previous set purchase and want pure pack volume at minimum entry cost, the Booster Bundle is the format that fits. It is also the correct starting point for buyers targeting Dragalge ex, Pyroar ex, or Floette ex SIRs through pack gambling: cost per pull attempt is lowest here.
One Final Note on Singles
For the Mega Hyper Rare specifically, the math favors singles.
At a 1-in-956 pull rate, the expected cost of cracking that card from sealed product exceeds what the secondary market will price it at once supply is established. Collectors who want the Hyper Rare should monitor single-card listings alongside sealed product prices.
The Premium Collection and ETB serve different goals than Hyper Rare hunting. Know the distinction before spending at scale.
DexHaul is an independent, unofficial Pokémon search engine and is not affiliated with or endorsed by The Pokémon Company. Browse Chaos Rising ME04 products from independent shops at dexhaul.com to compare formats, sellers, and current prices across the ME04 product range.