30th Celebration Special Illustration Rares: The $396–$437 Tier Explained
By Dexhaul Team · September 16, 2026
The 30th Anniversary Celebration set launched today with three distinct rarity tiers above standard Double Rares, and the SIR tier is the one most collectors can actually afford to target.
Two SIR singles are confirmed in the independent marketplace right now: Pikachu ex at 149/128 ($437) and Greninja ex at 148/128 ($396). Both sit well above the base Double Rare tier and well below the Futuristic Rare ceiling that opened at $1,025–$1,400 today. Understanding why those prices landed where they did requires looking at how this set is structured differently from a standard Scarlet and Violet expansion.
How the Rarity Tiers Stack in 30th Celebration
The 30th Celebration main set runs to 128 cards. Cards numbered above 128 are above-set, which is the standard signal for elevated rarity tiers in the SV era.
The Double Rare tier stays within the main set numbering. Mewtwo ex at 064/128 is the clearest anchor: it lists at $18 at launch. That is the floor for any Mega ex with a standard in-set number.
The SIR tier starts above 128 and runs through the mid-150s. The FUR tier (Futuristic Rare, debuting with this set) sits at 157/128 and 158/128 specifically: Mewtwo ex FUR and Mew FUR.
The gap between tiers is not proportional in the direction collectors might expect. Double Rare to SIR is a 24x price jump ($18 to $437). SIR to FUR is only a 2.35x jump ($437 to $1,025).
The largest single-tier multiplier in the set is the one most people overlook entirely.
The practical takeaway: if you want Mewtwo ex as gameplay card, $18 gets you the Double Rare. If the SIR artwork treatment matters, you are paying a 24x premium for it. That is a collector's decision, not a player's.
Pikachu ex SIR at 149/128: The Set's Collector Flagship at Launch
Pikachu ex 149/128 is the higher-priced SIR at $437 on launch day. The card carries the full Special Illustration Rare artwork format: extended illustration bleeding to the card edge, consistent with how SIRs have appeared across the SV era since Pikachu has appeared in every major English TCG anniversary set.
One detail specific to this set matters here. Every booster pack in the 30th Celebration guarantees one of 30 Pikachu variant cards.
The SIR Pikachu ex at 149/128 is not one of those 30 variants. It sits in a separate pull slot entirely. Collectors who opened packs expecting to hit the SIR Pikachu via the guaranteed Pikachu slot were chasing the wrong mechanic.
The $437 launch price reflects that clarity. Buyers who understand the pull structure know the SIR Pikachu ex is not a guaranteed find from any number of ETBs. It requires either direct pack luck at the SIR rate or a singles purchase at this floor.
The Elite Trainer Box contains nine booster packs at $179.95. A single SIR pull from those nine packs would cover the box at launch-day prices. That math is attractive enough that some collectors will chase SIRs via ETBs rather than buying singles outright.
The counterargument: the pull rate for SIRs in 30th Celebration is not published. The expected number of ETBs needed to hit one specific SIR is unknown as of launch day. For collectors with a specific target card in mind, the singles market eliminates that variance entirely.
Greninja ex at 148/128: The Second SIR and the Character Gap
Greninja ex 148/128 opens at $396 on launch day, $41 below Pikachu ex SIR. The two cards share the same rarity tier, the same above-set numbering format, and the same foil treatment. The price gap is entirely character demand.
Greninja debuted in Generation VI (Kalos) and is one of the most recognizable Water-type Pokémon in the competitive and collector market. The 30th Celebration Greninja ex Box launched today at $54.95, containing a separate promo Greninja ex card.
That promo version and the 148/128 SIR are distinct: different artwork, different card number, different foil format. The box promo cannot be pulled from packs; the SIR can only be pulled from packs or purchased as a single.
A collector targeting Greninja specifically has two live options today: the $54.95 promo box or the $396 SIR. They are not substitutes.
One delivers guaranteed promo artwork access at the box price; the other delivers SIR-tier artwork at 7x the cost. Both are new as of today.
The PSA Population Count on Day One
Every 30th Celebration SIR in any PSA or CGC population database shows zero certified copies today. The set launched today. No submitted card has completed a grading service turnaround cycle yet.
That zero means two things.
First, the raw-to-graded premium for these SIRs is completely unestablished. At $437 raw for the Pikachu ex SIR, a PSA 10 population of zero gives no price signal for what a graded copy will command.
Second, collectors submitting copies in the first submission wave are entering before that ceiling is set.
A useful reference point: Paldean Fates Charizard ex SIR raw-to-PSA 10 premium tracks roughly 3x over the first grading cycle. That set had a specific distribution structure (specialty-only, no booster box) that tightened supply in a particular way.
The 30th Celebration has different distribution mechanics, a different print run commitment, and a different character roster. Whether the Pikachu ex SIR follows a similar trajectory or a different one is not answerable from first-day data.
The grading angle is real. It is also the least predictable factor in a set's first week.
Where the SIR Sits Against the FUR Ceiling
The Futuristic Rare tier is what makes the 30th Celebration unique in the English TCG. Mewtwo ex FUR at 157/128 opened at $1,025 today. Mew FUR at 158/128 opened higher at $1,400, reflecting a rarer first-day pull count despite Mewtwo carrying stronger standalone demand.
Those are the only two FUR cards in the set.
The SIR tier sits in an interesting structural position relative to the FUR. It is the only rarity tier in the set where character demand differentiates two cards from each other: Pikachu ex SIR at $437 versus Greninja ex SIR at $396.
At the FUR tier, both cards are at $1,025 and $1,400, where the gap is driven by launch-day pull count anomalies rather than the usual character-demand differential. At the Double Rare tier, the market treats all Mega ex double rares roughly similarly, pricing most around the same floor.
The SIR tier is where individual card identity has the most price influence. That is the collector's tier in this set.
How Launch-Day SIR Prices Typically Move
Launch-day prices for SIR singles in limited-distribution sets follow a recognizable pattern. Supply is thin in the first 48 hours because most sealed product is still in transit or sitting in ETBs awaiting opening. Prices typically drift downward in the first two to four weeks as raw supply enters the singles market from collectors who opened product on day one.
Whether $437 for the Pikachu ex SIR is a launch-day premium or a long-term floor depends on how much product was allocated to the market and how quickly it sells through at the sealed level. The 30th Celebration uses a specialty-channel-only distribution model in most markets, similar to the 2021 Celebrations and Paldean Fates. That structure historically limits raw supply more than a mass-retail booster box would.
The honest summary on timing: launch day is rarely the cheapest window to buy SIRs, and rarely the most expensive. The cheapest window is typically three to six weeks post-launch when the first wave of pack openings has flooded the singles market but before any allocation scarcity becomes apparent. For collectors comfortable holding cash, watching the price movement across October is a reasonable approach to these two SIRs.
DexHaul searches the independent marketplace in real time across thousands of sellers. To browse 30th Celebration singles, sealed product, and SIR listings as they appear, search DexHaul for 30th Celebration Pokémon cards. DexHaul is independent and unofficial, not affiliated with The Pokémon Company.